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MSTR Calculator

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From Strategy’s Oct 5, 2026 8-K: 848,000 BTC held

Projection from Strategy’s latest filings

Optional

Optional · up to 8 decimals

Scenario

 

Your settings go into the link
Bitcoin power law (Santostasi): fair price = 1.0117×10−17 × d5.82, where d = days since the genesis block (Jan 3, 2009).
Lower bound (support) = 0.42 × fair. Upper bound (resistance) = 3 × fair.
Year 0 is the BTC close stored with the latest 8-K. From there the price eases onto the chosen line over 4 years (one halving cycle), never in a jump: price = line × (today’s ratio to the line)w, with w sliding smoothly from 1 to 0 (smoothstep). This applies whether BTC starts below the line (it catches up) or above it (it eases down). After that it follows the line. The % shown is the average yearly growth that path implies over the selected duration. Drag the slider for a constant custom rate instead. —

 

mNAV on net reserves, as Strategy has defined it since Jul 23, 2026: MSTR price ÷ Net BTC per share.
Net reserve = BTC reserve + USD − senior claims (debt notional + perpetual preferred notional). The USD offsets claims, as in Strategy’s Net BTC.
Here: MSTR price = mNAV × max(0, BTC held × BTC price + USD − senior claims) ÷ shares outstanding.
Simplified vs Strategy’s figure: every convertible note counts as a claim at notional (Strategy counts in-the-money notes as shares instead), and shares are basic shares, not fully diluted. —

Target MSTR market cap ÷ net reserve. Set by the scenario; drag to override.

Logistic curve capped by bitcoin’s supply. BTC held B(t) = K ÷ (1 + ((K − B0) ÷ B0) · e−rt), with K = 21,000,000 BTC, the only hard cap. r is set so year-one growth equals the slider: B(1) = B0 × (1 + rate). Buying is fast early and slows as holdings near the cap; they never reach it.
Dilution slows in step. Issuance funds the buying, so dilution runs at its rate × (1 − B/K) ÷ (1 − B0/K). Over t years that adds up to E = ln(B/B0) ÷ (r · (1 − B0/K)) “issuance years”: shares = today × (1 + dilution)E. —

 

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Senior claims as a share of the BTC reserve. Senior claims = debt notional + perpetual preferred notional. Projected claims = ratio × BTC reserve, where BTC reserve = Strategy’s BTC held × BTC price (USD not included).
Default 20%: Strategy guidance of keeping senior claims (debt + preferred) around 20% of BTC NAV.
Today’s ratio uses the filed claims: filed senior claims ÷ BTC reserve at the calculator’s BTC price. So there is no jump at year 0, the ratio eases from today’s to the slider value over the same 4-year smoothstep as the BTC price: ratio = slider + (today − slider) × w, with w sliding smoothly from 1 to 0. After that it stays at the slider.
Net reserve = BTC + USD − senior claims, floored at $0. —

 

 

Year by year

All three scenarios

From the filings

MSTR price = mNAV × max(0, Strategy BTC × BTC price + USD Reserve and USD Cash − senior claims) ÷ shares outstanding. Strategy’s BTC follows a logistic curve capped at 21M; shares grow at the dilution rate, slowing in step with the BTC buying; senior claims (debt + preferred notional) are a set % of the BTC reserve, eased from today’s filed ratio over 4 years; USD is held flat at the latest filed balance. All convertible notes count as claims at notional and shares are basic, not fully diluted, so this mNAV is close to but not the same as Strategy’s published mNAV. Today’s MSTR value is the live quote when it loads (market mNAV = quote ÷ net reserve per share, easing to your mNAV over 4 years), otherwise the model value at your mNAV. Year-0 BTC is the latest completed daily close (UTC day), otherwise the close stored with the latest 8-K. Projections are hypothetical and not investment advice.